The Last Most Important Un-Holy War Ever

This post is 100% dedicated to The Rivalry that consumes the state of Utah during the last week of the college football season and has done so for decades... The (Un)Holy War. The season has been a roller coaster for both teams following different paths. I will break down how we got to this point and give you some predictions before the match up that is coming on Saturday at 1:30.

The University of Utah Utes:

How they got here: They started off the season ranked fairly high and played arguably the absolute worst opening schedule in the NCAA. This is what transpired:

In an opening Thursday night game the Utah defense bottled up Heisman Hopeful Dion Lewis of Pitt, while Jordan Wynn and the offense were inconsistent and played to a standstill after regulation at home. They head to overtime, where freshman Blechen picked off Pitts awful QB to seal the win for the Utes 27-24. This win seemed impressive until we realized that Pitt is awful and would lose to probably 45 other teams in the country too.

Next, the Utes were gifted a home game against UNLV by the MWC in the second week of the year. As expected they beat up on the Rebels 38-10, but I am not even sure they covered, they were probably favored by more than 28.

That was followed up by the Utes first road test of the year at... New Mexico, oh OK so it was not really a road test but they beat the snot out of them 56-14.

Next came an out of conference home game against perennial bottom feeder San Jose St. The Utes had their most complete game of the year in a 56-3 shellacking.

Then the Utes traveled to Iowa St to play a Cyclone team with talent, but with out winning tradition. Offensively this was the best game for the Utes by a long shot winning 68-27. Iowa state is a team that beat Texas, and almost beat Nebraska , but ultimately is 5-7.

That trip was followed by a trip to Laramie to play the Cowboys of Wyoming. They beat the Cowpokes 30-6. Another inconsistent offensive performance for the Utes, but the defense stayed on track.

Next came a home bout with Colorado State. The Utes played a great defensive game and shut down the true freshman Pete Thomas of CSU en route to a 59-6 win. Now to this point in the year the Utes had played 7 opponents with a current combined record of 16-51 (23.8%).

Now things become interesting, the Utes take their top 10 ranking to Air Force, the Utes offense struggle mightily and thanks to a litany of turnovers by Air Force manage to avoid the upset narrowly winning 28-23.

Next, TCU rolls into town, and to avoid causing Ute fans to relive this day again we will just say that the Horned Frogs rolled in this one 47-7 at Utah. The Utah secondary and defense looked pathetic and lost at home against the Top-3 opponent.

Then came the rebound for the Utes as they travel to storied Notre Dame right? Wrong, the Utes fell flat on their face in front of TD Jesus and put up 3 whole points in the process of getting embarrassed by a mediocre Notre Dame team starting a true freshman QB.

So the Utes again try to rebound, this time on the road at San Diego St. The Aztecs have a high powered offense and showed it early, putting up 27 in the first half. SDSU was in complete control of the game marching in to score to go up 34-10 but a ball goes off of a WR's hands into the waiting arms of a Ute DB. That was followed up by a hail mary from Wynn to Moeai as the first half expired, making it 27-17 a huge swing. But given that they Utes still needed 3 Ryan Lindley interceptions to seal the deal in San Diego.

That brings us to today, and what do we know? That the Utes are capable of blowing out awful teams. That the defensive backfield is mediocre at best when facing a capable passing attack. That the defensive line is very good. That Jordan Wynn is even more erratic then he was as a freshman. That they are not even close to being in the same league as TCU (but very few are). And I think we know that the Utes are mentally weak. No one on this years team knows how to lead.

The Brigham Young University Cougars:

How they got here: The Cougars started off the season with a moronic 2 QB system and very few play makers on offense. A difficult opening schedule would really test the Cougars.

First, the Cougars played at home versus the Washington Huskies. The Cougars 2 QB system worked for a week, but everyone with a pair of eyes could see that Heaps was a real QB and Nelson just a RB with a weak arm. The defense flew around the field containing the overrated Jake Locker and getting a 23-17 win.

Next on to Air Force in the 2nd week of the year. BYU was in this one at the half, then the Coaches made the unfortunate decision of going with Nelson for the 2nd half and sitting Heaps. The result, 0 points and a 35-14 loss. The defense looked completely uninspired.

Then on to Florida State. The team with superior athletes and a freakishly good O-line out lasted the cougars, winning 34-10 in Tallahassee. BYU was simply out manned and the defense could not get off the field on 3rd down.

Then back home, finally the 2 QB system is gone, and the Nevada Wolfpack head to town. Lead by Collin Kaepernick, who is a freak, Nevada won a game in which BYU never gave up, 27-13. BYU's defense showed signs of life, but the offense looked anemic.

Finally on to Logan to get their automatic W of the year right. Wrong. But apparently no one told Jaime Hill that Utah State actually wanted to win that game because his defense was absolutely atrocious. The Cougars suffered an embarrassing loss 33-16 and it probably wasn't that close. Bronco followed this up by firing D-coordinator Hill and inserting himself into that position. Result...

At Home the Cougars faced off with San Diego St. BYU controlled the game from start to finish keeping the ball for 45 minutes of the 60 played. The defense played inspired and held a good offense to 21 points. BYU's offense found out that they have a bunch of 300 lb lineman and some good RB's.

Then the Cougars head to TCU. Surprisingly the Cougars were down 3-0 with about 2 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter, then TCU scored 2 times on short fields to go into the half 17-0. BYU's defense held TCU to 31 points, 10 below their season avg. The offense only mustered 3 points though on the road.

Next BYU traveled home to take on the weak part of their schedule. First up, Wyoming. The Cougars managed a 25-20 win at home. The defense looked good again, but the offense needed some precision and the WR's had been as awful as one could imagine.

After the bye week the Cougars took on UNLV. BYU put together the first of 3 complete games winning 55-7. Heaps and the offense finally had some cohesion, the defense looked very good.

Next came a trip to Colorado State. Another complete game, BYU won 49-10.

Lastly BYU hosted New Mexico. BYU had a lot of penalties at home which helped control the damage but ultimately BYU won 40-7.

That brings us up to speed. So what do we know about BYU? We know that their offense needs to be balanced in order to win. We know that the defense is very different under Mendenhall, and very good. We know that after the Utah State loss BYU is 5-1 albeit against teams with a combined current record of 26-41 (38.8%). We know exactly what BYU is. If Heaps has time he can kill you with the massive cannon the 19 year old is slinging around. We know that the 3 headed running attack has a lot of change of pace and rarely fumbles. We know that the defense is going to hit you hard and not give up big plays. We also know they lack play makers at WR.

Now just before the prediction is unveiled lets look at common opponents:

Air Force:

Utah 28-23

BYU 14-35 Advantage Utah (+26)

TCU:

Utah 7-47

BYU 3-31 Advantage BYU (+12) Running total (Utah +14)

San Diego St.:

Utah 38-34

BYU 24-21 Advantage Utah (+1) Running total (Utah +15)

New Mexico:

Utah 56-14

BYU 40-7 Advantage Utah (+9) Running total (Utah +24)

Wyoming:

Utah 30-6

BYU 25-20 Advantage Utah (+19) Running total (Utah +43)

UNLV:

Utah 38-10

BYU 55-7 Advantage BYU (+20) Running total (Utah +23)

Colorado St:

Utah 59-6

BYU 49-10 Advantage Utah (+14) Running total (Utah +37)

Lastly a look some key stats:

Utah's Offense: Rushing 162.9 yds/gm, 4.8 yds/attempt

Passing 251.7 yds/gm

BYU's Offense: Rushing 172.8 yds/gm, 4.4 yds/attempt

Passing 186.9 yds/gm

Utah's Defense: Giving up 20.2 pts/gm

BYU's Defense: Giving up 21.8 pts/gm

Predictions: Here is what I think will happen:

1.) Jake Heaps will continue his hot streak. Utah's secondary might have been the most overrated group in all of college football. Heaps will throw 3 TD's and 1 pick.

2.) Jordan Wynn will be erratic. Wynn just isn't as good as we thought he was. But he wont kill his team this week. He will go for 2 TD's 1 pick.

3.) Asiata and Wide will have a better day then Quezada, DiLuigi, and Kariya. This has everything to do with Utah's front 4. But if BYU's O-line opens holes this could change quickly because the defensive backfield might struggle with Quezada.

4.) There will be a lot of penalties. Both teams will be sloppy. The emotions run too high in this game and that might actually favor all the freshman at BYU who don't have the disdain built into them.

5.) Utah will lose the turnover battle. But this is no surprise they have been losing this all year.

6.) Shaky Smithson will make some big plays on special teams. Falsev for BYU will not.

And finally (drum roll please).... the winner of the final (Un) Holy War between conference foes will be.... BYU 27-24. Ending Utah's disastrous year (yes 9-3 would be disastrous after the start) and kick starting BYU's run at another 10 win year next season.

P.S. Did anyone really think I would pick Utah??

Feel free to disagree, or applaud my predictions all you like. Let's see some traffic this time people. Happy Thanksgiving and remember everyone Stay Classy.